


Beginner’s Luck (Function of Regression to the Mean)

by glacis



Category: Numb3rs
Genre: M/M
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2010-01-31
Updated: 2010-01-31
Packaged: 2017-10-06 21:11:26
Rating: Mature
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 2,726
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/57792
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/glacis/pseuds/glacis
Summary: <blockquote class="userstuff">
              <p>Charlie tries to get into a sniper's pants.  Er, head.</p>
            </blockquote>





	Beginner’s Luck (Function of Regression to the Mean)

_Spoilers for Numb3rs ep. 8: Sniper Zero._
    
    
    ~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~

He’d known Agent Edgerton was going to be a pain in the neck from the moment he laid eyes on him.  Charlie fidgeted at the way the man’s eyes seemed to look at him, then through him, dismissing him as a neophyte, a mere distraction to those whose responsibility it was to solve the case and stop the sniper.

As the investigation went on, there was less dismissal and more intensity in those eyes, but Charlie had never liked feeling inferior, and the fact that this man knew so much, both experientially and viscerally, about being a sniper, gave Charlie a massive inferiority complex.

It also didn’t help with his tendency to second-guess his own conclusions.  Particularly with the nagging feeling he couldn’t shake that he was missing something.

Things came to a head as he stood running probabilities through his mind, looking for a commonality, a clue, a connection.  Edgerton made the strong case that there were variables Charlie would never understand until he, himself, had experienced the mechanics of sniper shooting.  Variables he’d never knew existed.

Heart rate.  Adrenaline surge.  Perspiration.  Breathing pattern.

His own breathing pattern was disrupted, and his heart rate elevated, unexpected so, as Edgerton moved close beside him in the window to illustrate some of the physiological effects of sniper attack preparation and execution.

He smelled good.

So, distraction was yet another variable to introduce into the equation.  Although his probably wasn’t the same as that felt by the actual serial sniper.  At least he hoped not.
    
    
    ~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~

That night Charlie dreamt of things and in ways he hadn’t for years.  When he got up in the morning he balled the sheets up and shoved them to the bottom of the hamper.  He’d have to make sure he did the laundry.  He was a grown man.  He didn’t need his dad to see evidence of the fact that one irritating special agent could turn him into a kid having wet dreams again.
    
    
    ~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~

In the end, it was simplicity, not additional variables, that defined the pattern.  Still, Edgerton was right, and Charlie told him so… well, Charlie told him he wasn’t completely wrong.

As he told Don, it was as important for Charlie to understand the mechanics of the sniper’s acts as it was for Don to understand the psychology.  Not as important, actually, since Don was the lead investigator and drove the investigation while Charlie was simply an advisor giving hints on possible placement of future sniper attacks, but still, the comparison was apropos.  So Charlie bullied, or perhaps wheedled, Don until his big brother gave in and took him to the shooting range.

It was as loud and freakish and uncomfortable as Charlie expected, although it certainly provided him with a better understanding of the ‘rush’ to which Edgerton had alluded.  Charlie couldn’t believe the way his hands shook, or the grin he couldn’t suppress when he made quite a good shot, or the odd compulsion he felt to do it again.  Or the erection he carefully hid from Don, bouncing on the balls of his feet and shoving his hands deep in his pockets to keep the pressure of his jeans zipper off his groin.

Don thought once was enough, and was unhappy about even that single visit.  Charlie wanted to do it again.  Partially to see if it was skill rather than a function of regression to the mean that resulted in such a good shot.  Partially to see if it was still a rush.  The addictive nature of shooting could in itself be a variable, and including it in his calculations required further study.

He tried explaining this to Edgerton.  He’d driven over to the man’s hotel, knocked on his door, and when Edgerton answered, he’d tried to explain.

Edgerton watched him the entire time he babbled.  He didn’t blink once.  When Charlie finally wound himself into a verbal knot and resorted to looking up through his curls at Edgerton in the least threatening manner he could, Edgerton finally blinked.

“I’ll take you back to the shooting range,” he said, pulling the door shut behind him.

That hadn’t been as difficult as Charlie expected.  As they walked out to Edgerton’s rental car, Charlie tagging along at Edgerton’s heels, he could have sworn he heard Edgerton say, “If it turns you on that much, I can’t wait to see it.”  But when they got to the car, Edgerton looked as nonchalant and disinterested as he had since Charlie first met him.

He must have misheard.

Unfortunately.
    
    
    ~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~

The range was deserted when they got there.  Edgerton had a key, and Charlie raised an eyebrow at that.

“Range master’s an old friend.  Plus, I have permission from the field office.  Need to keep my rating up.”

That made sense.  Charlie took the ear protectors Edgerton offered and started to put them on.  Edgerton held up a hand to stop him and Charlie gave him an inquisitive look.

“Before you handle the rifle, I want to talk you through some things.  Help get you in the mind-set.”

“Oh, that would be great!”  Charlie beamed at him then trotted over to take his place along the wall in the target area.  Edgerton was a step behind him, watching again, only blinking more this time.  “That would help.  I told Don it was the mechanics I was interested in, and it is, really, but since this is a complex case, and motivation combines with skill level along with several other factors to determine outcome, the more I understand the situation from the sniper’s perspective the better able I’ll be to determine a pattern to his behavior and predict possible future outcomes.”

Edgerton cleared his throat.  He blinked several times, then slowly smiled at Charlie.

It was a completely new expression, one Charlie hadn’t seen before, and it made Charlie’s stomach melt.

It also made other parts of him harden up, a lot, so he quickly turned toward the target to cover evidence of his inappropriate reaction to Edgerton’s unexpectedly sexy smile.  It was Charlie’s turn to clear his throat.

“So, uhm, what do we, ah, do?” he asked, his voice a little lower than usual.

Expecting Edgerton to stand next to him, as Don had done, Charlie was unnerved to find Edgerton standing behind him, instead.  The difference in their respective height allowed Edgerton to see just over Charlie’s head, and the additional centimeters in reach allowed him to align his arms along Charlie’s, directing his stance next to the rifle.

Charlie felt like he was being engulfed by Edgerton.  It wasn’t unpleasant, far from it, but it was certainly distracting.  So was the way Edgerton’s voice purred in his ear as he went on about control and patience and perfect moments and time slowing down.  So distracting, in fact, that Charlie couldn’t hear anything but that rumbling purr in his ear, couldn’t feel anything but the warmth of Edgerton’s body blanketing his, and couldn’t concentrate on anything but the rush of his own pulse in his ears and the way his palms were sweating and the fact that he was so hard he couldn’t think straight.

The purr broke, and Edgerton leaned even closer, whispering, “You have to watch out for those distractions.

Charlie closed his eyes and shivered.  Then Edgerton dipped his head and licked Charlie’s neck.

It was a very good thing Charlie wasn’t actually holding the rifle or the rounds firing as the result of his fingers clenching would have ripped the roof off the range.

Edgerton dropped his left arm away from Charlie’s arm and ran his hand around Charlie’s waist, down his stomach, then over the bulge at the front of his jeans, where he let his fingers gently press.  Charlie nearly swallowed his tongue.

“Tell me you don’t want this and we’ll both walk away, right now,” Edgerton whispered again, his breath against damp skin making Charlie shiver again.

“No,” Charlie forced out.  When Edgerton began to draw away, Charlie yelped, “I mean no, don’t stop!” and grabbed Edgerton’s hand, clamping it back around his erection where it belonged.  “Don’t stop,” he repeated, less loudly but with no less emphasis.

Edgerton didn’t.  Things got a little fuzzy after that, mainly because Charlie was dizzy with arousal and his mind wasn’t functioning at full capacity, but moments strung together like a chain in his mind, and those moment stood out with startling clarity in his memory afterward.

The heat of Edgerton’s hands as they slid under his shirt and pulled it up over his head, then the strength in those hands as they rubbed across his chest, lulling him back against Edgerton’s chest.  More licking along the side of his neck, then along his shoulder, and biting, too, and it was a very good thing the range was closed, because as loudly as Charlie was moaning, if anyone else had been around, emergency medical responders would have already been on the scene to help whomever was dying.

Then there was the rough texture of the wood against his back as Edgerton turned him around, and the first taste of Edgerton’s mouth, coffee and sugar, he must have had chocolate for dessert, and he sucked on Charlie’s tongue like it was candy.  More heat, from those hands, as they unfastened his jeans and pushed them down, then that mouth was moving away, and Charlie had to moan again, because the licking and the biting were but a prelude to the feast Edgerton made of his body.

By the time Edgerton made it to Charlie’s erection it was a good thing there was a wall behind him and a head full of hair to hang onto in front of him because Charlie’s knees had turned to water.  He looked down to watch his cock moving into and out of Edgerton’s mouth and nearly came from the sight of it, the concentration on Edgerton’s face, the distention of the mouth around him, the way the movement of throat muscles felt around the head of his cock, the grip clamped against his thighs, holding him steady.

Then Edgerton opened his eyes.

That watchful look was back, burning stronger than ever, and Charlie couldn’t look away.  He wondered, suddenly, if this was what Edgerton had been thinking when he watched Charlie the last few days, silently, not measuring and finding him wanting, but scrutinizing and wondering about taste, texture, temperature… the thought tipped him over the edge.

He tried to give warning, a strangled sound that made no sense, one enervated shove against the top of Edgerton’s head to try to let him know what was about to come, but he didn’t have the energy.  From the intensity in Edgerton’s eyes and the way he leaned forward, swallowing Charlie down until his chin was nudging at Charlie’s balls, the warning was unnecessary.  Edgerton took everything Charlie gave, then held him upright against the wall to clean up everything he missed.

By the time he finished with his tongue-bathing, Charlie was past the moaning stage and into whimpering.  Edgerton licked his way back up Charlie’s torso and chest, along his throat, pausing to leave a lingering biting kiss there, before diving back into Charlie’s mouth.

Charlie got enough energy to lift his hands to Edgerton’s shoulders, to cant his hips into the erection that was bumping against him, to rub the length of his body affectionately against the one leaning over him.  When he finally got his breath back, he tilted his head and looked up at Edgerton.

Swollen lips and half-closed eyes suited him well.

Bucking up against Edgerton’s erection, just enough to make him groan, Charlie asked, “What will we do about that?”

“I want to fuck you,” Edgerton told him, the quiet tone an erotic counterpoint to the blunt words.

“Right,” Charlie managed to get out on the third try.  He had a feeling his eyes were about to pop out of his face.

“But I don’t think you’re ready for that yet,” Edgerton continued with a wicked grin that promised further exploration in future meetings.  “So how about this…”

He pulled Charlie’s hand down and wrapped it around his cock.  It didn’t feel all that different than Charlie’s, a little hotter perhaps, a little longer, not quite as thick.  Uncut.  The skin moved, the length jumped under his hand, and his fingers tightened instinctively.  Edgerton covered Charlie’s hand with his own and began to move it, rubbing, pulling gently, down, then back up, a little tighter around the head, pressing a little at the base.

Charlie leaned up for another kiss as they worked together, the movement of tongues echoing the motion of hands on cock.  Edgerton’s other arm wrapped around Charlie’s waist, holding them close, stroking his hip, as Charlie dropped his free hand down to gently rub along Edgerton’s balls, encouraging him on.  All too soon Edgerton bit off a curse against Charlie’s mouth and shuddered, thrusting into Charlie’s hand as he came.  Charlie could feel the tension melting out of the muscular frame leaning against him and returned the favor from earlier, holding Edgerton until the shuddering passed and he could stand on his own.

“So,” he finally said, as Edgerton nuzzled against his neck again, “I’m assuming from your earlier comment that my potential readiness is acceptable and there will be some opportunity for future… carnal expressions?”  He felt like an idiot as soon as he said it.  Edgerton smiled against his skin, making him shiver again.

“If you’d like,” Edgerton said, then bit his neck gently and sucked at the bite until Charlie was squirming against him, panting raggedly.

“God, yeah, I’d like,” Charlie got out, then dragged Edgerton back into another deep kiss.

When Edgerton got his mouth back, he grinned down at Charlie and said, “Shall we continue this back at my hotel room?”

Charlie never dressed faster in his life.  As they left the range and got in the car, he asked, “Does that mean the future is now?”

Edgerton grinned, and said, “The future is what you make it.”

Boy, was it ever.
    
    
    ~ PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0 ~

His dad was still up when Charlie finally got home, so he didn’t have to try to sneak in.  Just as well since he hadn’t done much sneaking and wasn’t very good at it.  His dad looked up, a vaguely hopeful expression on his face.

“Have a good time on your date?”

Charlie grinned, hoping it wasn’t as much a smirk as it felt.  “No date, just out… helping on a case.”

His dad’s face fell, but Charlie smiled all the way up the stairs and into bed.  And he kept smiling.  For days.  Even after Edgerton shot the sniper to save Charlie’s life.

Later that night, Charlie thanked him.  Effusively.  And thoroughly.

Supporting Bernoulli's theorem (a principle of probability stating that the sequence xn/n tends to p where the random variables xn have common mean p, implying that the relative frequency of an event of probability p tends to p as the number of trials tends to infinity)[1], popularly interpreted as the empirical law of averages, each time they met the resulting sex was kind of spectacular.  Charlie was glad this particular mean of performance was so damned high.

After all, there was no such thing as luck.

Just practice.

END

 

* * *
    
    
    [1] Explanation of Law of Large Numbers (Bernoulli's theorem):   
    Let X(r) be a sequence of mutually independent random variables with a 
    
    
    common distribution. If the expectation MU = E(X(r)) exists then:  
    
    
    
    PR[{(X(1)+X(2)+..+X(n)}/n - MU > k] -> 0  as n -> infinity for any k>0
    
    
     If S(n) = X(1)+X(2)+....+X(n)  and if the variance is VAR(X) then by 
    
    
    Chebyshev's inequality:   PR[S(n)>t] <or= nVAR(X)/t^2
    
    
     For t = kn the right hand side tends to 0 and so:
    
    
       PR[S(n)>kn] -> 0
    
    
       PR[S(n)/n > k] -> 0
    
    
       PR[S(n)/n - MU > k] -> 0
    
    
     Which is the condition we wished to prove.

 As per <http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/52154.html> 7/7/05


End file.
